Six Major Trends for China’s Auto Industry in the 15th Five-Year Plan

According to the 15th Five-Year Plan and related industrial layouts, China’s automotive industry will completely bid farewell to the extensive development phase of scale expansion and enter a new era of deep transformation and high-quality upgrading driven by new productive forces.

Trend 1: Electrification Enters Full Popularization Phase

NEV penetration rate has exceeded 50%, and electrification has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven. In the first seven months of 2026, cumulative NEV sales reached 9.007 million units, with monthly share exceeding 60%. The full supply chain from batteries to motors to electronic controls has achieved autonomy.

Trend 2: Intelligence Leaping from Assisted to Autonomous Driving

Mandatory national standards for L3/L4 autonomous driving have been released, and intelligent connected vehicles have entered a new stage with legal frameworks. Cockpit-driving integrated architecture has become standard on new models, and large AI models onboard have evolved the cockpit from a tool to a partner.

Trend 3: Comprehensive Enhancement of Supply Chain Autonomy

From automotive chips to operating systems, domestic substitution is accelerating. Five automotive chip certification and accreditation industry standards have been officially released, filling the global gap in national-level capability evaluation rules for the entire automotive chip industry chain.

Trend 4: Overseas Markets as Key Growth Engine

China’s auto exports reached 5.31 million units in H1 2026, up 53% year-on-year. Reaching the 10-million-unit annual target has become a near certainty. From product exports to capacity exports and brand exports, China’s automotive globalization strategy continues to upgrade.

Trend 5: Green Low-Carbon Principles Throughout the Lifecycle

Five ministries jointly released a green design guide, listing lightweighting as one of 11 key green design directions. Next-generation technologies such as solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells are accelerating industrialization.

Trend 6: Data Security and Cybersecurity as New Priorities

With the deepening of intelligent connectivity, a trinity safety system encompassing data security, cybersecurity, and functional safety is being constructed.